For over five decades, the Assad dynasty has held power in Syria, first under President Hafez al-Assad and now under his son, Bashar al-Assad. While Bashar has managed to cling to power through years of war and international isolation, recent developments suggest the regime’s grip is weakening, revealing the fragility of its so-called victory.
The Assad regime faced its most significant challenges during the Arab Spring in 2011 when uprisings toppled authoritarian leaders in neighboring countries. However, the regime’s survival was secured with substantial support from key allies: Iran, Russia, and Hezbollah. Over the years, these allies provided military and financial backing, allowing the regime to maintain control despite widespread destruction and division across the country.
This week, the illusion of stability was shattered when opposition forces led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, a rebranded group with roots in al-Qaeda, launched a swift offensive from Idlib. In just three days, they reached Aleppo’s center, prompting chaos and reports of Syrian government forces retreating in the north. The rebels reportedly advanced toward Hama, a city infamous for the brutal suppression of uprisings under Hafez al-Assad in 1982.
The reasons for this sudden shift appear tied to the declining engagement of Syria’s primary allies:
- Hezbollah, which had played a pivotal role in supporting Assad during the civil war, has redirected its focus to its conflict with Israel, following the escalation of violence in October 2023.
- Russia, which deployed military forces to stabilize Assad’s government in 2015, now prioritizes its ongoing war in Ukraine.
- Iran, a longstanding supporter, faces frequent Israeli strikes on its bases in Syria, diminishing its influence and operational capacity.
Syria’s prolonged conflict has devastated its economy, with corruption and mismanagement exacerbating the hardships faced by ordinary Syrians. Millions remain displaced, and the human toll of the war continues to rise.
Although the Assad regime has weathered countless challenges over the years, history suggests no rule is eternal. As internal and external pressures mount, the foundations of Assad’s power appear increasingly fragile.
For more details, read the original report on cnn.com.
